Bitcoin (BTC) is approaching a major year-end options expiry, with approximately 132,411 BTC worth $10.9 billion in outstanding contracts scheduled to expire on December 25, 2026. The event could influence market volatility as traders position themselves around key price levels, including $78,000 and $100,000.
Bitcoin was trading near $82,009 on Thursday, October 22, as investors assessed whether the cryptocurrency could recover sufficiently to reach the psychologically important $100,000 mark before the end of the year.
Data from cryptocurrency options exchange Deribit shows that the December 25 expiry is currently the second-largest scheduled Bitcoin options settlement, highlighting the considerable amount of capital positioned around the year-end market outlook.
While some traders are maintaining defensive positions against potential declines, others are holding bullish contracts that could benefit from a substantial recovery in Bitcoin prices.
Bitcoin Options Worth $10.9 Billion Set to Expire on December 25
According to Deribit options data recorded on October 22 at 12:45 p.m., approximately 132,411 Bitcoin are represented by outstanding options contracts scheduled to expire at 8:00 a.m. UTC on December 25.
At Bitcoin’s reported price of $82,009, the contracts represent a notional value of approximately $10.9 billion.
The outstanding positions include 82,148 BTC in call options, which give holders the right to buy Bitcoin at a predetermined price, and 50,262 BTC in put options, which provide the right to sell at an agreed price.
The resulting put-to-call ratio stands at approximately 0.61, indicating that call options account for a larger share of outstanding contracts.
Although a higher number of calls can indicate bullish positioning, the ratio alone does not establish whether traders expect Bitcoin prices to rise. Options are also widely used for hedging and more complex trading strategies.
The December settlement currently ranks behind the October 30 monthly expiry, which accounts for approximately 136,292 BTC in outstanding contracts.
Once the October expiry passes, the December contracts could become one of the most closely watched events in the Bitcoin derivatives market.
Bitcoin’s $78,000 Options Level Signals Cautious Market Positioning
One of the notable findings in the December options data is the calculated concentration level around $78,000.
This figure sits approximately $4,009 below Bitcoin’s reported trading price of $82,009, suggesting that significant options positioning remains concentrated below current market levels.
The $78,000 figure should not be interpreted as a guaranteed settlement price or a precise prediction of where Bitcoin will trade on December 25.
Instead, it provides an indication of where options exposure is concentrated, potentially helping traders identify areas where hedging activity could become more significant.
Such concentrations may influence short-term trading behavior as settlement approaches, although their effects depend on market conditions, changes in open interest and the positioning of options dealers.
Can Bitcoin Still Reach $100,000 Before Year-End?
Despite cautious positioning around lower price levels, the options market also shows continued interest in a significant Bitcoin recovery.
According to the reported Deribit figures, approximately 35,862 BTC in call options are positioned at strike prices of $100,000 or higher for the December 25 expiry.
These positions demonstrate that traders continue to maintain exposure to scenarios involving a substantial increase in Bitcoin’s price.
However, the existence of these contracts does not necessarily mean investors expect Bitcoin to reach $100,000. Some higher-strike options may have been purchased as relatively inexpensive speculative positions or used within broader hedging strategies.
For Bitcoin to rise from $82,009 to $100,000, it would need to gain approximately 21.9%.
That would represent a significant recovery over the remaining two months of 2026, requiring stronger buying momentum and supportive market conditions.
Bitcoin Options Expiry Represents Less Than 1% of Circulating Supply
Although the December expiry carries a substantial notional value, its size remains relatively modest when compared with Bitcoin’s total circulating supply.
With approximately 19.9 million BTC in circulation, the 132,411 BTC represented by the outstanding options contracts account for roughly 0.7% of circulating Bitcoin.
Nevertheless, the concentration of contracts around particular strike prices makes the expiry important for derivatives traders.
Options-related hedging and changes in market positioning can contribute to price fluctuations, particularly when Bitcoin approaches heavily traded strike levels.
It is also important to note that the $10.9 billion figure represents the notional exposure associated with the outstanding contracts, not an equivalent amount of Bitcoin that must necessarily be bought or sold when the options expire.
Bitcoin Price Outlook: December Expiry Highlights Diverging Expectations
The December 25 options data presents a mixed picture of investor expectations.
A substantial concentration of options exposure around $78,000 suggests that downside protection and cautious positioning remain relevant, while the 35,862 BTC in call options at $100,000 and above demonstrate continued interest in a stronger year-end rally.
Neither figure provides a definitive forecast of Bitcoin’s future price.
Instead, the data reflects a market in which participants are preparing for different outcomes, balancing downside risks against the possibility of renewed upward momentum.
As the December expiry approaches, investors will be watching changes in open interest, Bitcoin’s spot market performance and broader financial conditions to determine whether the cryptocurrency can move closer to the $100,000 threshold.
For now, the year-end options market suggests that $100,000 remains a possible bullish scenario rather than an established market expectation, with Bitcoin’s ability to sustain a recovery likely to determine whether that target becomes achievable before December 25.
